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Latest data and analysis related to COVID-19 in Gloucestershire

Catch up on the latest data and analysis related to COVID-19 in Gloucestershire.

COVID19 Gloucestershire 

COVID19 intelligence is important to ensure we understand the direct and indirect impact of COVID19 on the population of Gloucestershire.

The BETA COVID-19 DASHBOARD is updated daily and provides information about cases of coronavirus and deaths associated with coronavirus at a county and district level. 

* Please note if you are using internet explorer you may have problems viewing the dashboard. In this instance try using another browser, e.g Chrome, Firefox, Opera, Edge. If the webpage works, please ignore the message. 

 

R value and growth rate

R

The reproduction number (R) is the average number of secondary infections produced by a single infected person.

An R value of 1 means that on average every person who is infected will infect 1 other person, meaning the total number of infections is stable. If R is 2, on average, each infected person infects 2 more people. If R is 0.5 then on average for each 2 infected people, there will be only 1 new infection. If R is greater than 1 the epidemic is growing, if R is less than 1 the epidemic is shrinking. The higher R is above 1, the more people 1 infected person infects and so the faster the epidemic grows.

R can change over time. For example, it falls when there is a reduction in the number of contacts between people, which reduces transmission. R increases when the numbers of contacts between people rise, leading to a rise in viral transmission.

Growth rate

The growth rate reflects how quickly the numbers of infections are changing day by day. It is an approximation of the percentage change in the number of infections each day. If the growth rate is greater than 0 (+ positive), then the epidemic is growing. If the growth rate is less than 0 (- negative) then the epidemic is shrinking. However, at very high growth rates, this relationship does not hold.

The size of the growth rate indicates the speed of change. A growth rate of +5% indicates the epidemic is growing faster than a growth rate of +1%. Likewise, a growth rate of -4% indicates the epidemic is shrinking faster than a growth rate of -1%.

The estimated R value and  grow rate is available at a national and regional level and can be found here.

Confirmed cases

Given changes to eligibility for testing and the government’s change in approach to ‘Living with COVID’ from 1st April 2022, the covid case numbers and rates for specimen dates after this date will no longer represent the population nor be comparable to any cases or testing which occurred before this date. The case number, case rates and testing numbers from the 1st April onwards will reflect only those populations which are eligible for testing (and for which the test can be logged on the government website), and therefore we urge caution with these figures.

For information please find a link to the national dashboard here, however do bear the information above in mind.

National dashboard

The dashboard includes information about total cases and rates per 100,000 populations by nation, region, Upper Tier Local Authority (such as Gloucestershire) and Lower Tier Local Authority (such as districts). The interactive map shows rates or numbers of cases in each area over the last 7 days. When rates are shown, the density of the colour indicates how high the rate is: darker colours mean higher rates. Selecting an area on the map highlights the area in the table to the left.

* Please note if you are using internet explorer you may have problems viewing the dashboard. In this instance try using another browser, e.g Chrome, Firefox, Opera, Edge. If the webpage works, please ignore the message. 

 

These figures are from tests carried out in UKHSA/NHS (Pillar 1) and other testing routes, such as mobile labs (Pillar 2) as well as LFT's.

COVID-19 cases are identified by taking specimens from people and sending these specimens to laboratories around the UK to be tested. If the test is positive, this is a referred to as a lab-confirmed case. This data refers to tests carried out under Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 testing.

Data may be subject to delays in case confirmation and reporting, as well as ongoing data cleaning .Data is based on the date of specimen rather than the result of the test.

Cumulative case counts include patients who are currently unwell, those who have recovered and those who have died.

From 31 January 2022, UKHSA COVID-19 case reporting has changed to an episode-based definition which includes possible reinfections. Infection episodes will be counted separately if there are at least 90 days between positive test results. Each episode begins with the earliest positive specimen date. If someone has another positive specimen within 90 days of the last one, this is included in the same episode. If they have another positive specimen more than 90 days after the last one, this is counted in a separate episode (a possible reinfection episode).

The different Nations, Regions, UTLAs and LTLAs vary enormously in population size. Areas with larger populations will tend to have more cases than those with smaller populations. To account for the different population sizes, rates are calculated. The count for each area is divided by the total population and multiplied by 100,000. Populations are the 2018 Mid-year estimates from the Office for National Statistics.

The rates are easier to compare than the raw counts, but they do not take into account other factors that may affect the numbers of cases, such as the age of the population or the amount of testing carried out.

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

 

Estimates of COVID-19 within the population

For modelled estimates of cases within the population the ONS Infection Survey utilises UK wide sampling  and therefore provides good indication of the prevalence of COVID-19 within the community and population as a whole

 

* Please note if you are using internet explorer you may have problems viewing the dashboard. In this instance try using another browser, e.g Chrome, Firefox, Opera, Edge. If the webpage works, please ignore the message. 

Vaccination uptake

The government vaccination dashboard  provides the latest information on vaccinations within Gloucestershire.

You can find out the latest vaccination uptake in your area by using the Department of Health and Social Care’s interactive vaccination map.

 

Mortality

Useful links

 

GOV.UK Coronavirus COVID-19 dashboard links

UK case rate map (zoom to see more in depth geographies): Interactive map of cases | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

 

Gloucestershire specific links:

Data on each of the above pages can be filtered to view data for any area (e.g. Local Authority), region (e.g. South West), or Nation (e.g. England) as well as providing data on the UK as a whole.

 

Further data sources:

 

Further data sources – winter monitoring:

 

Further data sources: variant monitoring:

 

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