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Secondary School Forecasts 2022/23 – 2028/29


Your pupil number forecast is now available to download; it is a likely indication of your pupil numbers over future years to enable you to plan provision. This pupil number forecast will be used in assessing basic need, through the school capacity return, to ensure sufficiency of school places throughout the county. It will also be used in any Section 106 agreement negotiations affecting your school. The forecast is available via Perspective Lite.

The secondary forecast package this year comprises of a forecast for your school and an aggregate forecast for your planning area.


In order to generate the forecasts, we have to study patterns of pupil preference and mobility for each school. We have data relating to the number of pupils that have transferred to your school from individual primary schools over the last five years, along with recent number on roll data for the same schools that allows us to see how demand is likely to change over the next seven years. We also have information about transfers of pupils from

  • Independent schools
  • Across the county border
  • Further afield, in both the UK and overseas

If you think this information would be helpful to you, then you can request a copy of your “Feeder School Report”.


What do I need to do?

Download the file mentioned below and take careful note of the pupil numbers forecast for your school. Please share with senior management, finance staff and governors.


The individual school forecasts are available via Perspective Lite now.


The filename is of the form 916nnnn_@SecondaryForecast2022.pdf

            where nnnn is your school DfE establishment number.


If you have any queries or comments or would like to provide feedback, please contact the Data and Analysis Team

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