What will the workforce requirements be over the coming years?

Nationally, the percentage of people working in the adult social care sector has been increasing over the last 10 years. We have projected forward Gloucestershire’s care workforce percentage in line with national trends between 2012 & 2023. If the national trend for 2012 to 2023 continues in Gloucestershire over the next 20 years, 5.5% of our total workforce will be working in adult social care. However, this trend is unlikely to continue indefinitely, and we are not able to predict what the upper ceiling would be.

To meet the forecast demand, it would require 29,200 people to be working in adult social care (7.4% of the workforce) in 2043.

Over the course of the next 20 years, the community-based care workforce for older people in Gloucestershire is projected to grow from about 6,300 to over 8,500 people. However, this will not be sufficient to meet the predicted increase in demand. As the shortfall in community care workers grows, there may be an increasing number of people who are not receiving the type of care they need.

Figure 25: Figure showing potential workforce deficit 2023-2043

ContrOCC Commitments Report 2019-2023
ONS Sub-national population projections 2018-based principal projection
Skills for care report 2022-23